Futurology

Background

In general, my adoption of technologies and advances from ‘current state’ to ‘future state’ have averaged seven years ahead of mainstream adoption. This is comparable to (but not as good as!) predictions by futurists like Ray Kurzweil and Bill Gates. This is a long-term repository of my previous predictions, and current predictions.

Technology Notes Year launched My adoption Popular:
adopted by >1%
of world population
Delta
Internet Mosaic browser 1969 1995 1998 3 years ahead
Email Got in trouble with my very first email 1969 1995 1998 3 years ahead
Apple laptops Beginning with the Powerbook, with upgrades every year or two 2001 2003 2010 7 years ahead
Gmail First batch of invites, 2004 2004 2004 2010 6 years ahead
Hybrid electric vehicle Purchased the Toyota Prius, technology has been emulated by others 2001 (Aus) 2004 2024? 20 years ahead
Twitter Invitation from Biz Stone. Original 3-character handle stolen 2006 2006 2011 5 years ahead
Facebook Invitation 2006 (public) 2007 2008 1 year ahead
Bitcoin Bought at $10 each, worth $19,500 each at peak 2008 2008 2022? 14 years ahead
Tesla Sat in/tested the Tesla in Arizona 2003 2013 2024? 11 years ahead
VR (wired) The Oculus Rift DK1 2013 2013 2018 5 years ahead
VR (mobile) The Samsung Gear VR 2015 2015 2018 3 years ahead
Average: 7 years ahead

Predictions

These predictions are made by Alan D. Thompson on 27/February/2020, and a legal archive has been made at archive.org.

Medical: Male intactness at birth in all first world countries by 2027. Systematic criminal mutilation and assault at birth (circumcision) banned by law. Retroactive sentencing and jail time for offenders would be an interesting consideration, in much the same way as new laws for certain movements in the mid 2010s have had retroactive penalties applied to offenders.

Brain: neural lace (brain mesh) in some of the population by 2027, as standard by 2030.

Food: canola (rapeseed) products including canola oil, found to be harmful by 2029.

Vehicles: no ownership (just-in-time hire only) in all first world countries by 2029. ‘Call to me’ (smart summon) of vehicle-as-a-service (VaaS) as standard. 50/50 driver/driverless by 2029.

Medical: selective traits pre-conception, conception, and during pregnancy by 2032. In other words, parents can upgrade the future child’s intelligence, features, and other genetic traits.